While there is a complicated definition of probable cause, it can and should be simply defined as and thought of a “fair probability.” There are (in descending order) 3 burdens in a courtroom: (1) beyond a reasonable doubt, (2) clear and convincing, and (3) a preponderance. A preponderance of evidence is anything past the 50 percent mark. The courts have continually said that probable cause is less than a preponderance.
Legal Supplement
Texas v. Brown, 460 U.S. 730 (1983),
A practical nontechnical probability that incriminating evidence is involved is all that is required.
U.S. v. Downs, 151 F.3d 1301 (10th Cir. 1998),
Probable cause to search a vehicle is established if, under the ‘totality of the circumstances[,]’ there is a ‘fair probability’ that the car contains contraband or evidence.
Woods v. City of Chicago, 234 F.3d 979, 996 (7th Cir. 2000),
Contrary to what its name might seem to suggest, probable cause demands even less than a probability.
U.S. v. Garcia, 179 F. 3d 265, 268-69 (5th Cir. 1999),
Although the fair probability must certainly be more than a bare suspicion . . . our court has rejected the notion that the government must show that a reasonable person would have thought by a preponderance of the evidence, that a defendant committed a crime . . . In short, the requisite fair probability is something more than a bare suspicion, but need not reach the fifty percent mark.”
Illinois v. Gates, 462 U.S. 213 (1983),
[P]robable cause is a fluid concept-turning on the assessment of probabilities in particular factual contexts-not readily, or even usefully, reduced to neat set of legal rules. While an effort to fix some general, numerically precise degree of certainty corresponding to probable cause may not be helpful, it is clear that only the probability, and not a prima facie showing, of criminal activity is the standard of probable cause.”
U.S. v. Ruiz, 664 F.3d 833 (10th Cir. 2012),
Probable cause for a search warrant does not require an officer's suspicion about the presence of contraband to be more likely true than false.
